The invention relates to raw material grinding in the field of cement process industries, and aims to provide an advanced control method and system for a vertical mill based on model identification and predictive control. The method comprises the following steps of: acquiring real-time data from a distributed control system (DCS) monitoring system; analyzing a variation trend of the operation and technology parameters, and then invoking a pathological working condition expert database for performing trend matching; if a pathological working condition appears, issuing early warning display and giving qualitative adjustment suggestion remind; giving an optimal target set value according to the basic operation condition of the vertical mill and the variation situation of the product quality requirement, and writing into a predictive controller; setting an optimal controlled quantity output according to the optimal target set value, and outputting to the DCS monitoring system to control a field actuator to take action. By adopting the invention, the qualitative adjustment suggestion can be precisely given; a mathematical model of the grinding process of the vertical mill is established and updated in real time; the steady-state error of the control system is reduced; and the grinding process of the vertical mill is instructed, so that the mill can operate stably for long term at a maximum efficiency point, and stable margin is maintained.