The invention relates to a method for predicting the yield of coal tar, belonging to the technical field of the coal chemical industry. In the method provided by the invention, the tar yield Y of a single type of coal is obtained through a heating experiment; then, the volatile Vdaf, bonding index G and inertia ingredient content sigma I of the single type of coal are measured; the tar index T ofthe single type of coal is computed; and the tar index T value of the single type of coal and the tar yield Y of the single type of coal are drawn to obtain a straight line through fitting. When the method provided by the invention is applied, the volatile Vdaf, bonding index G and inertia ingredient content sigma I of the single type of coal are measured to compute the T value, and the corresponding points are found out on the drawing so as to predict the tar yield of the single type of coal. When the tar yield Ymix of the mixing coal is predicted, the summation computing is carried out after the predicted tar yield value Yi of the single type of coal is multiplied by the mass percent Xi of the single type of coal in the mixing coal so as to obtain the tar yield Ymix. The method providedby the invention is simply and conveniently used, ensures the high prediction accuracy in the tar yield of the single type of coal and the mixing coal, is superior to the empirical formula which is used by coking enterprises at present and is beneficial for enterprises to optimize a mixing coal scheme and formulate a production plan.