The invention discloses a method for calculating the partial discharge failure probability of oil paper insulating equipment, belonging to the technical field of partial discharge monitoring of oil paper insulator power equipment in a power system. The method comprises the following steps of: 1, performing a partial discharge test on an oil paper insulating material used in equipment to be tested to obtain a probability distribution density function of the total discharge capacity Q of partial discharge pulse in a specific time period before the oil paper insulating material is broken down; and 2, performing statistics on the discharge capacity of the partial discharge pulse of the equipment to be tested, substituting the total discharge capacity Q of the partial discharge pulse of the equipment to be tested, which is detected in a specific time period before the oil paper insulating material is broken down, into the probability distribution density function in the step 1, and calculating the partial discharge failure probability P (q) of the oil paper insulating equipment. The method has the beneficial effect that the partial discharge failure probability of the oil paper insulating equipment can be diagnosed according to the characteristic parameter of a partial discharge signal.