The invention provides a wind power probability forecasting method based on numerical weather forecasting ensemble forecasting results. Numerical weather forecasting serves as the foundation, basic input data are provided for short-period wind power forecasting through a numerical weather forecasting ensemble forecasting technology, and a short-period forecasting model is established for each ensemble member to obtain a plurality of groups of forecasting results. For the obtained plurality of groups of forecasting results, and different characteristic forecast errors are classified through an ensemble forecasting configuration characteristic classification method and a forecasting power level classification method to obtain future forecast error bands under certain confidence level. According to the wind power probability forecasting method, under the same confidence level, the error band section is narrower, and for power grids containing large-scale wind power integration, under the condition of the same safety margin, the power grid operation cost can be effectively reduced, and the power grid operation economical property can be improved.