The invention provides a method for establishing a wind-driven generator power output random model capable of reflecting wind speed variation characteristics. The method comprises the following steps of establishing a wind speed model in consideration of the wind speed variation characteristics; establishing a wind turbine generator output power model; establishing a wind power plant output power model. According to the method, the wind-driven generator power output random model is established based on a sequential hour determinacy model, a semi-invariant method and a Cornish-Fisher stage number, and can reflect the regularity of power output of a wind-driven generator along with seasonal variations and day and night alternation as well as the fluctuations and the indeterminacy of the power output of the wind-driven generator under the influence of factors such as weather, so that the power output of the wind-driven generator is more consistent with an actual condition.