The invention relates to a regional ground surface irradiance distribution predicting method which is used for determining minute-level ground surface irradiance regional distribution prediction within future 1 hour. The regional ground surface irradiance distribution predicting method comprises the following steps of: determining a local cloud base height; performing image process on a foundation cloud picture; predicting local ground surface irradiance distribution. The regional ground surface irradiance distribution predicting method provides calculation of the cloud base height by utilizing the ground surface regular meteorological observation data, realizes ground surface irradiance and photovoltaic power prediction within the local range through combination of foundation cloud picture data, is free from the dependence from a traditional method to the observation of the cloud base height, and improves calculation accuracy of cloud position and size at the absence of a ceilometer and the water level total irradiance prediction accuracy of a photovoltaic power station.