The invention discloses a model and a method for building a provincial electric power metering center production plan prediction software system. A nature simulation method is adopted due to the similarity of the production process and surges in the water flow and a formal model is established and a plane prediction algorithm is designed for the production work scene to serve as the basis of the technical method for developing the plan prediction software system. A water pool, a container and the capacity are utilized to describe a plan and products and the quantity in the plan in the model; the production chain and the product production capacity are represented by a culvert and the culvert flow; the inventory, the products and the quantity are represented by the external water pool, the container and the capacity; a monthly demand plan serves as a driving source of the plan prediction, the production capacity can meet the demand of the previous link plan if a certain production link is unconstrained and accordingly a main plan is generated according to the positive surge direction, and a reverse driving plan is generated otherwise. According to the model and the method for building the provincial electric power metering center production plan prediction software system, the problem of the algorithm design due to the complex mutual dependence and restricting relation of various plans is solved and accordingly the development, testing and maintenance of the prediction software can be simple and clear.