The invention relates to a medical ultrasonic probe surface temperature control method based on a temperature control mathematical model. The method is characterized in that the probe surface temperature changes can be predicted by deduction of the mathematical model; unknown constants in the model are obtained by fitting of a plurality of temperature data points measured by a temperature sensor and used for predicting transient and steady-state temperature changes; the prediction result is used for guiding regulation of system parameters; the method specifically comprises the following steps: step 1, acquiring the probe surface temperature by the temperature sensor; step 2, calculating the steady-state temperature of the probe through regression analysis of temperature data; step 3, comparing the obtained steady-state temperature and with the target temperature or temperature threshold and analyzing; and step 4, adjusting the imaging parameters correspondingly. According to the method, the probe temperature and transient and steady-state responses are predicted by virtue of the temperature data fed back by the temperature sensor in the probe and the sensor surface heating mathematical model, and adaptive regulation to the imaging system parameters is also carried out based on the prediction result, that the imaging probe is operated at the optimized state within the safe temperature scope is ensured.