The invention provides an abrasion reliable life prediction method based on a random process. Starting from an abrasion mechanism, a failure law is searched; an analysis method is designed by utilizing the mechanical reliability; the abrasion loss statistical property based on the random process is researched; and an abrasion failure time predication technology is researched. The method mainly comprises the following four steps: establishing an abrasion random process model; establishing a membership function of the allowable abrasion loss by utilizing fuzzy mathematics; establishing an abrasion reliability model; and establishing an abrasion reliable life prediction model. The method disclosed by the invention has the characteristics that: factor randomness and abrasion gradual change behaviours can be considered; the abrasion loss distribution statistical property is sufficiently considered; the abrasion reliable life prediction method is given; and the method is feasible and has relatively high practical value.