Disclosed is a vertical shaft wall temperature judgment method. The method includes the following steps that (1) all parameters of freezing pipes are measured or checked; (2) then the cold supply amount per day is determined; (3) a computational formula of freezing day number N which frozen earth needs to develop to the shaft wall is deduced; (4) a computational formula of the shaft wall temperature influenced by single ring hole is deduced; (5) a computational formula of the shaft wall temperature influenced by two or more freezing holes is deduced; (6) an n day frozen earth development radius formula of a single freezing pipe is deduced; (7) the numerical value of a distance influence coefficient epsilon is determined; and (8) the all measured or checked parameters of the freezing pipes and the determined numerical value of the distance influence coefficient epsilon are substituted into the computational formula in the step (5). By means of the vertical shaft wall temperature judgment method, harsh conditions of an empirical method and an engineering analogy method are avoided, and data are obtained in advance through a scientific mode.