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发明公开
CN106447132A 一种区域光伏电站群的中长期发电量预测方法 无效 - 驳回

一种区域光伏电站群的中长期发电量预测方法
摘要：
本发明公开了一种区域光伏电站群的中长期发电量预测方法，该方法包括获取区域光伏电站群和位于区域光伏电站群中的各个光伏电站在同一连续时间段的监测数据；根据监测数据从各个光伏电站中选取样板光伏电站；根据监测数据预测样板光伏电站的中长期发电量；根据预测的样板光伏电站的中长期发电量预测区域光伏电站群的中长期发电量。本发明所提供的方法，根据监测数据选取样板光伏电站，预测样板光伏电站的中长期发电量，并根据预测样板光伏电站的中长期发电量进一步有效地升尺度预测出区域光伏电站群的中长期发电量，为中期安排机组的调试和检修、安排运行维护计划以及优化电厂间的调度提供了依据，为跨区域长期电力交易的有效实施提供了依据。
摘要（英）：

The invention discloses a medium-and-long term generating capacity prediction method for a regional photovoltaic power station group. The method comprises the step of acquiring monitoring data of the regional photovoltaic power station group and each photovoltaic power station in the regional photovoltaic power station group in a same continuous time period; selecting a model photovoltaic power station from the photovoltaic power stations according to the monitoring data; predicting the medium-and-long-term power generation capacity of the model photovoltaic power station according to the monitoring data; and predicting the medium-and-long-term power generation capacity of the regional photovoltaic power station group according to the predicted medium-and-long-term power generation capacity of the model photovoltaic power station. In the method provided by the invention, the model photovoltaic power station is selected according to the monitoring data to predict the medium-and-long-term power generation capacity of the model photovoltaic power station, and the medium-and-long term generating capacity for the regional photovoltaic power station group is predicted by effective raise in the scale according to the predicted medium-and-long-term power generation capacity of the model photovoltaic power station, thereby providing the basis for the commissioning and overhaul of units in medium-terms, the arrangement of operation and maintenance plans and the optimization of the inter-plant scheduling. A basis is provided for the effective implementation of the cross-regional long-term electricity transaction.

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