The invention relates to a method for determining surface temperature change of a radiation plate of a radiation cold supply system in water supply cooling. The method comprises the following steps: influence factors of the surface temperature change of the radiation plate and change ranges of all factors are determined according to actual operation conditions of a radiation cold supply air conditioning system; according to the determined influence factors of the surface temperature change rules of the radiation plate and the change ranges of all the factors, ANSYS software is applied to simulate the surface temperature change conditions of the radiation plate in water supply cooling under different influence factors to obtain sample data; and based on SAS software, a statistic analysis program is applied to perform regression analysis for the sample data to obtain a surface temperature change prediction model of the radiation plate in water supply cooling. The method is higher in accuracy of the prediction result obtained by the regression analysis, is simple in control system, can realize real-time control, and is suitable for residential building heating system control.