The invention discloses a self-adaptation load predicting method and device. The method includes: acquiring historical bus load data in a first time period closest to a current moment, and acquiring historical bus load data in a second time period closest to time corresponding to the first time period; using a virtual predicting model to predict the predicted bus load data in the first time period according to the historical bus load data in the second time period; judging whether the predicted bus load data is consistent with the historical bus load data in the first time period or not, if so, using the virtual predicting model to predict bus load of a target moment, and if not, regulating the parameters of the virtual predicting model, and returning to the predicted bus load data predicting step. By the self-adaptation load predicting method, bus load predicting precision is increased greatly.