The invention relates to the technical field of petroleum well logging, in particular to a high-water-cut horizontal well water plugging potential prediction method which includes the steps: 100 collecting well group dynamic parameters and oil well static parameters; 200 simulating a water incoming direction according to the well group dynamic parameters and the oil well static parameters; 300 analyzing reservoir parameters and reservoir reconstruction parameters in the oil well static parameters by a fuzzy clustering method to identify the water breakthrough position of a shaft; 400 analyzing whether the simulated water incoming direction is consistent with the identified water breakthrough position of the shaft or not to obtain water plugging potential prediction results. The water breakthrough rule of a horizontal well is simulated by analyzing the well group dynamic parameters and the oil well static parameters, the water incoming direction and the water breakthrough position of the horizontal well are pre-judged, a basis is provided for establishing water plugging measures of the horizontal well, and the method is short in water seeking period, high in applicability, easy to implement and low in cost.