The invention discloses a pavement use performance distribution condition prediction method. The method sequentially comprises the following steps of (1) dividing a whole road into units, and assessing use performance of each unit of the whole road; (2) obtaining an over-the-years use performance distribution matrix according to occurrence probabilities of A, B, C, D and E in each unit of the whole road; (3) obtaining a transition probability matrix of different step lengths according to the over-the-years use performance distribution matrix; (4) obtaining state transition matrix weights of Markov chains of different step lengths according to the transition probability matrix; (5) calculating the pavement use performance distribution matrix Bn+1 of the (n+1)th year. According to the method, the steps are compact; and a pavement use performance distribution condition is further obtained based on a conventional pavement use performance index, thereby assisting a road maintenance management department to accurately master a change law of the pavement use performance distribution condition of the whole road section.