The invention discloses a passenger flow early warning system based on video passenger flow counting. The passenger flow early warning system comprises a weight deduction module, a static state model module, a transportation budget module, a passenger flow counting module, a real-time monitoring module, a density prediction module, and an early warning module. Monitoring stations are used to acquire passenger flow monitoring targets, and associated stations are acquired according to the operation routes of the passenger flow monitoring targets. The monitoring stations are used to extract all of public transport means possibly capable of bringing the passenger flow to the target area or taking the passenger flow away from the target area, and the associated stations are used to accurately locate the various passenger flow monitoring targets, and are used to generate stopping stations, which are capable of causing the change of the passenger flow in the target area. The precision of the prediction of the change of the passenger flow in the target area according to the public transport means is improved.