A technical problem to be solved by the invention and a technical task provided by the invention are to perfect and improve a conventional technical solution and to provide a power direct purchase model based on coal price prediction so as to provide guidance for owners during mode selection. To achieve the above objective, the direct purchase model comprises the following steps of: establishing a power operation cost model of an area; predicting the unit price of standard coal; calculating the annual revenue of a captive power plant during the life cycle of the model; converting the annual net cash flow of the captive power plant into a net present value; calculating a break-even point of sales price; comparing the total power sales price and purchase price in the area during the life cycle of the model, and selecting a mode according to a comparison result. The direct purchase model carries out break-even analysis by key parameters, can provide reference for captive power plants and large consumer direct purchase model selection, has a horizontal contrast correction function to avoid economic losses of owner units due to distortion caused by human factors.