The invention discloses an air conditioner flexible control response ability prediction method taking outdoor air temperature prediction errors into consideration. The method comprises the following steps that 1, a white noise model for error prediction of the outdoor air temperature is established; 2, the indoor temperature change process of a room where an air conditioner is located is describedthrough a random differential equation; 3, the working process of a air conditioner cluster is simulated by using a random simulation method so as to obtain a sample of the flexible control responseability of the air conditioner, wherein the sample comprises the samples of the response capacity and the response delay; and 4, a statistical method is adopted to obtain a prediction result of the flexible control response ability of the air conditioner, namely, the sample mean value, the sample standard deviation and the estimation interval of the response capacity and response time delay. According to the method, a reference basis can be provided for implementing effective demand response management on the load of the air conditioner by an air conditioner load aggregation provider.