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发明公开
CN110490362A 一种风电功率预测偏差确定方法和系统 审中-公开

一种风电功率预测偏差确定方法和系统
摘要：
本发明涉及一种风电功率预测偏差确定方法和系统，包括：根据历史风电功率预测偏差样本中风电功率预测值确定历史风电功率预测偏差样本所属同时率区间；根据各同时率区间中历史风电功率预测偏差样本中风电功率预测偏差确定各同时率区间对应的风电功率预测误差概率分布函数；本发明提供的技术方案利用历史风电功率预测偏差样本中预测偏差分布确定未来各同时率区间对应的不同置信度下风电功率预测偏差情况，考虑了不同的同时率下风电功率预测偏差概率分布特性的差异对预测风电功率预测偏差的影响，有效地提高了风电功率预测偏差的预测精准性。
摘要（英）：

The invention relates to a wind power prediction deviation determination method and system. The method comprises the following steps: determining a coincidence rate interval to which a historical windpower prediction deviation sample belongs according to a wind power prediction value in the historical wind power prediction deviation sample; determining a wind power prediction error probability distribution function corresponding to each coincidence rate interval according to the wind power prediction deviation in the historical wind power prediction deviation sample in each coincidence rate interval. According to the technical scheme provided by the invention, the wind power prediction deviation condition under different confidence coefficients corresponding to each time rate interval inthe future is determined by utilizing the prediction deviation distribution in the historical wind power prediction deviation sample. The influence of the difference of the probability distribution characteristics of the wind power prediction deviation under different simultaneous rates on the prediction of the wind power prediction deviation is considered, and the prediction accuracy of the windpower prediction deviation is effectively improved.

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