The invention discloses an operation state abnormal information-based bus-bar fault probability calculation method. The method comprises the steps that: bus-bar operation state and voltage informationis read; the bus-bar operation information is analyzed, so that various operation state abnormal signals can be screened out; bus-bar fault probabilities are calculated according to a bus-bar fault probability calculation formula based on the operation state abnormal information; and finally, the fault probabilities of related bus-bars are sorted from a large probability-to-small probability order, so that an operation state abnormal information-based bus-bar fault set can be obtained. According to the operation state abnormal information-based bus-bar fault probability calculation method ofthe invention, a risk equipment fault set is outputted to a power grid on-line safety and stability evaluation early warning system, so that the subsequent evaluation of the safety and stability of apower grid in a bus-bar operation state abnormal environment can be facilitated, and safety and stability control measures can be given; and the safe and stable operation level of the power grid can be enhanced.