Embodiments of a testing method for optimizing a therapy to a diabetic patient comprise collecting at least one sampling set of biomarker data, computing a probability distribution function, a hazard function, a risk function, and a risk value for the sampling set of biomarker data wherein, wherein the probability distribution function is calculated to approximate the probability distribution of the biomarker data, the hazard function is a function which yields higher hazard values for biomarker readings in the sampling set indicative of higher risk of complications, the risk function is the product of the probability distribution function and the hazard function, and the risk value is calculated by the integral of the risk function, minimizing the risk value by adjusting the diabetic patient's therapy, and exiting the testing method when the risk value for at least one sampling set is minimized to an optimal risk level.