Systems and methods of directed item consumption recommendations are disclosed which include generating, with a server, empirical transition matrix data that includes row data for a first item and column data for a second item, and an entry in the empirical transition matrix data for a number of users that acquire the second item after the first item, generating, with the server, metadata transition matrix data by partitioning items for each item metadata type, setting a uniform transition probability for all items in the partition, and summing the uniform transition probabilities across all metadata types, generating, with the server, transition probability matrix data by multiplying the metadata transition matrix data with a weight parameter, adding the result to the empirical transition matrix data, and normalizing each row, and providing item recommendations to a user computing device communicatively coupled to the server according to the generated transition probability matrix data.