A method of designing a well control operation includes obtaining sub-surface data related to a formation surrounding a well, building a geomechanical model of the formation based on the sub-surface data, obtaining operational data related to the well control operation, performing, on a processor, a hydraulic fracture simulation of the formation, wherein the simulation is based on the operational data and the geomechanical model, and determining an estimated volume of fluid required for a fracture to breach an upper surface of the formation.