In one embodiment, a computing system accesses current usage information of a mobile device associated with a user. The computing system then determine a future user state of the user based on multiple predictor functions. The multiple predictor functions calculate a probability of the future user state based on multiple weights and multiple decay factors. The multiple decay factors are determined from past user states. The computing system further sends instructions to the mobile device for adapting the operation of the mobile device corresponding to the determined future user state.