A fault parameter of an energy consumption model is modulated. The energy consumption model is used to estimate an amount of energy consumption at various values of the fault parameter. A first set of variables is generated including differences between a target value of the fault parameter and the various values of the fault parameter. A second set of variables is generated including differences between an estimated amount of energy consumption with the fault parameter at the target value and the estimated amounts of energy consumption with the fault parameter at the various values. The first set of variables and second set of variables are used to develop a regression model for the fault parameter. The regression model estimates a change in energy consumption based on a change in the fault parameter. Regression models are developed for multiple fault parameters and used to prioritize faults.