Velocity-weighted analysis of UE location data is disclosed. UE velocity can be determined from the change in position and time. UE dwell can also be determined from the change in position and time. UE dwell and UE velocity can be inversely related. UE dwell an UE velocity can be correlated to a likelihood that an event occurrence related to a point of interest affects UE travel between a first and second location. A location of the point of interest can be determined to be in a region corresponding to a path between the first and second location. The region can be associated with the UE dwell and/or UE velocity, such that a probability of interaction can be determined for the event occurrence for the point of interest. The region can comprise a probable UE path based on historical UE data.