A method for determining uncertainty in a predicted flight path for an aerial vehicle can include determining, by one or more computing devices, uncertainty in a performance model of the aerial vehicle. The method can further include determining, by one or more computing devices, uncertainty in a weather model indicative of weather conditions along the predicted flight path. In addition, the method can include determining, by the one or more computing devices, uncertainty in the predicted flight path based on the uncertainty in the performance model and the uncertainty in the weather model. The method can further include generating, by one or more computing devices, a notification indicating the uncertainty in the predicted flight path.