In some embodiments, the systems and methods obtain parameters for a set of mobile devices (or, other items), such as volume information, price information, and perceived value information for each mobile device within the set of mobile devices. The set of mobile devices may be a tier of substitute mobile devices that each affect consumer demand of other mobile devices within the set of mobile devices. The systems and methods may then determine substitution factors for the obtained parameters associated with the set of mobile devices, generate a substitution forecast for the set of mobile devices that is based on the substitution factors determined for the obtained parameters associated with the mobile devices, and determine a consensus forecast for the set of mobile devices that adjusts a baseline forecast for the demand of the set of mobile devices using the substitution forecast.