A computerized system and method for automatically estimating the likelihood of having a fall leading to a fracture/dislocation within a specified period is described, and comprises a predictive model for guiding patients to the right course of treatment and encouraging discussions with their doctors for better outcomes. The system and method extracts member's health information from health administrative claims data, including clinical and pharmacy data, and estimates the probability of a fall for that member. Patients with high risk scores are selected for various clinical programs and interventions to manage their health conditions and reduce their likelihood of falling.