A video coding device may be configured to estimate, based on a combination of a first parameter and a number of non-zero coefficients in a frame, a number of bits for non-zero coefficients of the frame, to encode the frame based on the estimated number of bits for the non-zero coefficients, to collect an actual number of bits used to encode the non-zero coefficients of the frame and an actual number of the non-zero coefficients in the frame, to update, based on the actual number of bits used to encode the non-zero coefficients of the frame and the actual number of non-zero coefficients in the frame, only the first parameter to form an updated first parameter, to form a rate estimation model using the updated first parameter and a second parameter, and to select, based on the rate estimation model, a coding mode for each block in the frame.