Computational methods and systems that proactively manage usage of computational resources of a distributed computing system are described. A sequence of metric data representing usage of a resource is detrended to obtain a sequence of non-trendy metric data. Stochastic process models, a pulse wave model and a seasonal model of the sequence of non-trendy metric data are computed. When a forecast request is received, a sequence of forecasted metric data is computed over a forecast interval based on the estimated trend and one of the pulse wave or seasonal model that matches the periodicity of the sequence of non-trendy metric data. Alternatively, the sequence of forecasted metric data is computed based on the estimated trend and the stochastic process model with a smallest accumulated residual error. Usage of the resource by virtual objects of the distributed computing system may be adjusted based on the sequence of forecasted metric data.