Methods, systems, and apparatus, including computer programs encoded on a computer storage medium, for adjusting an eligibility value for transmitting a digital component. In one aspect, a computing system includes a server for identifying opportunities to transmit digital components to client devices. The server determines a first probability of a given outcome occurring following user interaction with the digital component when the digital component is transmitted to the client device. The server determines a second probability of the given outcome occurring if the digital component is not transmitted to the client device. The server generates an outcome incrementality factor for the digital component, including determining a ratio of the first probability relative to the second probability, and triggers adjustment of an eligibility value based on the outcome incrementality factor. The server then controls transmission of the digital component to the client device using the adjusted eligibility value.