Methods, computer-readable media, and systems for providing disease management. In one implementation, a system develops a treatment recommendation for a patient based on patient data. The system may receive patient data, execute a basic model of the physiological system of the patient to generate a modified model for the patient based on the patient data, perform a statistical analysis of the patient data to detect data excursions of the parameter values; use the modified model to determine factors causing the data excursions; and use the model to develop a treatment recommendation to ameliorate negative effects of the disease.