In various embodiments, a hindsight application computes a hindsight metric value for evaluation of a video rate selection algorithm. The hindsight application determines a first encoding option associated with a source chunk of a media title based on a network throughput trace and a buffer trellis. The hindsight application determines that the first encoding option is associated with a buffered duration range. The buffered duration range is also associated with a second encoding option that is stored in the buffer trellis. After determining that the first encoding option is associated with a higher visual quality than the second encoding option, the hindsight application stores the first encoding option instead of the second encoding option in the buffer trellis to generate a modified buffer trellis. Finally, the hindsight application computes a hindsight metric value associated with a sequence of encoded chunks of the media title based on the modified buffer trellis.