A device and method for forecasting the brake lining wear, in particular the brake lining of rail vehicles, wherein the lining thicknesses, the sliding speed, the contact pressure, the total braking time, as well as optionally the temperature or the brake power are determined in a parameterization process during test drives with measurements at predefined time intervals, and the wear, the constant, as well as the material parameters are determined therefrom, where during the operating state, the wear rates are determined via the now known values of the material parameters and of the constants, and the wear is determined therefrom and, from the maximum allowable wear values, a remaining total braking time is then determined until the next lining replacement is required.