The present disclosure describes systems, non-transitory computer-readable media, and methods for determining latent components of a metrics time series and identifying anomalous data within the metrics time series based on one or both of spikes/dips and level changes from the latent components satisfying significance thresholds. To identify such latent components, in some cases, the disclosed systems account for a range of value types by intelligently subjecting real values to a latent-component constraint for decomposing the time series and intelligently excluding non-real values from the latent-component constraint. The disclosed systems can further identify significant anomalous data values from latent components of the metrics time series by jointly determining whether one or both of a subseries of a spike-component series and a level change from a level-component series satisfy significance thresholds.