A controller for an energy plant includes a processing circuit having a processor and memory which stores instructions executed by the processor. The processing circuit is configured to identify, from a plurality of thermodynamic states affected by a plurality of heat, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) devices, a reduced subset of the plurality of thermodynamic states to be predicted based on connections between the plurality of HVAC devices. The processing circuit is configured to predict values of the reduced subset of the plurality of thermodynamic states and operate the plurality of HVAC devices based on the predicted values of the reduced subset of the plurality of thermodynamic states.