A method for generating a multi-layer predictive model includes collecting historical observable data from one or more pieces of equipment of a same type, wherein the historical observable data is collected at different hierarchical levels of the one or more pieces of equipment; collecting operational state indications of the pieces of equipment corresponding to the collected historical observable data; generating, from the collected historical observable data, a set of operational state models, wherein each operational state model corresponds to one of the different hierarchical levels; and generating, from outputs of the set of operational state models, a top-level operational model for the piece of equipment. The top-level operational model is operable to determine maintenance and replacement timing for the piece of equipment.