In one embodiment, a computing system may access data samples associated with an access point of a communication network. The data samples may be collected at an application level from client devices associated with the access point and aggregated into data points correlating a first network metric to a traffic-volume metric. The system may partition the data points into a first and second set of data points using a first network metric threshold. The system may determine trends of the traffic-volume metric with respect to the first network metric based on regression analysis on the first and second sets of data points. The system may predict, based on the trends of the traffic-volume metric with respect to the first network metric, an amount of time until a network-capacity metric of the access point meets a traffic-loss threshold. The network-capacity metric may be determined based on the traffic-volume metric.