In various embodiments, a quality of experience (QoE) prediction application computes a visual quality score associated with a stream of encoded video content. The QoE prediction application also determines a rebuffering duration associated with the stream of encoded video content. Subsequently, the QoE prediction application computes an overall QoE score associated with the stream of encoded video content based on the visual quality score, the rebuffering duration, and an exponential QoE model. The exponential QoE model is generated using a plurality of subjective QoE scores and a linear regression model. The overall QoE score indicates a quality level of a user experience when viewing reconstructed video content derived from the stream of encoded video content.