A method of determining a failure model of a resist process of a patterning process. The method includes obtaining (i) measured data of a pattern failure (e.g., failure rate) related to a feature printed on a substrate based on a range of values of dose, and (ii) image intensity values for the feature via simulating a process model using the range of the dose values; and determining, via fitting the measured data of the pattern failure to a product of the dose values and the image intensity values, a failure model to model a stochastic behavior of spatial fluctuations in the resist and optionally predict failure of the feature (e.g., hole closing).