In one embodiment, a device calculates one or more distributions of bitrates associated with an application whose traffic is conveyed via one or more paths in a network. The device detects throughput modes of the application, based on the one or more distributions of bitrates associated with the application. The device associates each throughput mode with a quality of experience label, to form a plurality of pairs of throughput modes and quality of experience labels. The device estimates a quality of experience metric for the application, based on a bitrate of the application and the plurality of pairs of throughput modes and quality of experience labels.