A system and method for automatically adjusting computing resources provisioned for a computer service or application by applying historical resource usage data to a predictive model to generate predictive resource usage. The predictive resource usage is then simulated for various service configurations, determining scaling requirements and resource wastage for each configuration. A cost value is generated based on the scaling requirement and resource wastage, with the cost value for each service configuration used to automatically select a configuration to apply to the service. Alternatively, the method for automatically adjusting computer resources provisioned for a service may include receiving resource usage data of the service, applying it to a linear quadratic regulator (LQR) to find an optimal stationary policy (treating the resource usage data as states and resource-provisioning variables as actions), and providing instructions for configuring the service based on the optimal stationary policy.