A conveyor system that includes a sprocket, a conveyor element, a sensor, a tensioning system, and an electronic processor. The conveyor element is coupled to the sprocket to move around the sprocket. The sensor is positioned adjacent to the sprocket and configured to generate an output signal indicative of a detection of the conveyor element. The electronic processor is coupled to the sensor and to the tensioning system. The electronic processor is configured to receive the output signal from the sensor, estimate a trajectory of the conveyor element based on the output signal, determine a value for slack distance based on the estimated trajectory of the conveyor element, and control the tensioning system based on the value for slack distance.