A system includes a processor and a memory. The memory includes instructions that are executable by the processor to cause the processor to receive basin data of a target basin including an area of the target basin, a number of exploration wells in the target basin, and a number of discovery wells in the target basin. Additionally, the instructions are executable to cause the processor to provide the basin data as input to a trained machine-learning model to determine a predicted trajectory of exploration efficiency of the target basin. Further, the instructions are executable to cause the processor to, in response to providing the basin data as input to the trained machine-learning model, receive an output from the trained machine-learning model indicating the predicted trajectory of exploration efficiency in the target basin.