This document describes modeling and simulation techniques to select a cloud architecture profile based on correlations between application workloads and resource utilization. In some aspects, a method includes obtaining infrastructure data specifying utilization of computing resources of an existing computing system. Application workload data specifying tasks performed by one or more applications running on the existing computing system is obtained. One or more models are generated based on the infrastructure data and the application workload data. The model(s) define an impact on utilization of each computing resource in response to changes in workloads of the application(s). A workload is simulated, using the model(s), on a candidate cloud architecture profile that specifies a set of computing resources. A simulated utilization of each computing resource of the candidate cloud architecture profile is determined based on the simulation. An updated cloud architecture profile is generated based on the simulated utilization.