Mechanisms are provided to hypothetical scenario evaluations with regard to infectious disease dynamics based on similar regions. A user definition of a hypothetical scenario for a target region is received which specifies scenario features affecting an infectious disease spread amongst a population within the target region. Other predefined regions, in the set of predefined regions, having similar region characteristics to the target region are identified and attributes of the other predefined regions corresponding to the scenario features are identified. Modified model parameter(s) for an infectious disease computer model are derived based on the identified attributes. An instance of the infectious disease computer model is configured with the modified model parameter(s) and the instance is executed on case report data for the target region to generate a prediction for an infectious disease spread in the target region according to the hypothetical scenario, which is then output.