An exercise recommendation system determines a current capability of a user. The exercise recommendation system accesses an exercise history for a user. The exercise history comprises an exercise performed by the user and a capability of the user each time the user performed the exercise. The exercise recommendation system partitions the exercise history into a plurality of time periods, and, for each time period, computes an aggregate capability of the user for the exercise during the time period. The exercise recommendation system calculates a moving average capability of the user for the exercise based on the aggregate capabilities and determines a current capability of the user for the exercise based on the moving average capability. The current capability of the user may be discounted at least in part based on how recently the user performed the exercise.