The disclosed technology includes systems and methods for reducing temperature overshoot of a heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system. The disclosed technology can include a thermostat having a temperature sensor and a controller. The controller can be configured to receive temperature data from the temperature sensor, determine whether a time since the heating cycle of the HVAC unit began is greater than or equal to a predetermined amount of time, and determine whether a current temperature is less than or equal to a low threshold temperature, the low threshold temperature being less than a target temperature. If the current temperature is less than or equal to the low threshold temperature, the controller can determine whether a capacity of the HVAC unit at the end of the heating cycle is greater than a threshold capacity and adjust a response setting of the thermostat by a predetermined adjustment amount.