A monitoring method and a monitoring system for a machine tool to machine a workpiece are provided. The monitoring method includes the following steps. First, a vibration signal of a spindle of the machine tool is detected. Next, a vibration feature value of the vibration signal is obtained. Whether the vibration feature value exceeds a threshold condition is determined, wherein the threshold condition is determined by a training model based on a predetermined surface quality of the workpiece. When the vibration feature value exceeds the threshold condition, a machining parameter of the machine tool is adjusted.